2020-03-13
Black Friday
It Begins
Intellectually, I do not care if I die, so it's hard to care about others. Emotionally, I think I'm even colder. I mean, shall we talk numbers? At what point would I care? Is there a point where I would care?
LOCK DOWN - THE LARP: Perhaps, I should take this seriously. But here I sit in a public place. Eh, I'm probably already a carrier.
It is my Patriotic Duty to Panic!
Half of me (I have a lot of halves) is expecting the lights to flicker. People are going to turn sideways if either the lights or the Internet goes down.
Things are going to get weird.
Panic Mode Commenced!
I can see the emotion... or maybe, that's the sunlight.
Nobody was on that train. {After the fact comments will be noted thusly. My count was five people on a rush-hour train that would usually let off upwards of two hundred.}
Well, I'll give us that. It's a fairly organized panic.
As the sun goes down, it's like being in a vampire movie, with the werewolves howling in the background. {Another thing to note is that as this project (or at least, this page) goes on, my mind takes a very serious turn from the fanciful to the factual.}
I look at the Death Counts. I wonder why Italy has been hit so hard?
I took NyQuil... well, the generic equivalent. Allergies? Corona? Paranoia? I have no idea. Whatever the case, it's mild, thankfully.
Have I predicted Marshal Law? No? Then let me do so now. I don't know how often or how frequently. But there will be some Social Event {carefully chosen wording, if ever I saw} over the next two weeks, which requires Intervention... perhaps, when food supplies run short in some poorer neighborhood? {At the end of the week (all of these secondary notes are dated Friday, March 20th), I am less concerned about food shortages. But some 'Social Event' still seems like a safe bet.}
The double-line that follows indicates a day-break.
2020-03-14
Silent Spring
Pie Day
I shaved my beard. It is time to look patriotic. Thus, no wearing of my army jacket. So, patriotic might be the wrong term. It's time to blend, to be a normal, to look and act like everyone else.
I expect the Lock-Down to ramp up and become ever more severe... up to including road blocks, the curtailing of all travel, and defacto Marshall Law. And then, one day, all of these restrictions will be lifted... if not all at once, slowly over time. I mean, it matters what the Death Toll is (or rate of infection), but we're all under Voluntary House Arrest, as it is. It will become involuntary if the need arises.
Shelter In Place!
Social Distancing: I may be out for a walk. But that doesn't mean I want to come close enough to inhale your exhale.
More Generic NyQuil. I have no fever, which is the number one symptom. So, mild hayfever is the most likely explanation. Also, my eyes have basically bugged me for the last twenty-five years. Anyhow, a fully-clear nose can't hurt... nor can a full night's sleep.
The length and severity of the Lock-Down {as with all forward looking statements, this is pure conjecture} will be directly related to the number of newly reported cases. They will stop this {i.e. the government will stop further spread of the virus}. They'll shut down auxiliary commerce and socialization as much as they have to.
It's Saturday night, I'd lay even money the malls will close on Monday... and all restaurants will be take-out only by next Friday. I guess the bet is even money for each, as two separate bets. I wonder if I'll remember to report.
2020-03-15
Day Three
The Madness Begins
It has been posited by another (who sits close by) that there will be many Covid Babies. This I, too, believe. But I believe there will be plenty of Covid Divorces, as well. Two weeks of Shut-In will test a person... and much stress can be expected to be released on those closest at hand.
My productivity has dropped off. The Virus is not the only reason.
I view the world singularly, through my eyes, as the primary observer, the focus. So, I spend many a moment wondering what I have wrought. As in, what thoughts have been made manifest. Karma, in a nutshell. What thoughts, hopes, actions, or Dreams are now coming home to roost? {Some degree of this sophistry remains. But I will be happy to share the blame, if you like.}
I am dragging... falling into sedation.
There are five people in my string of unavoidable contact. I will see A. A will see B. B will see C. All the way up to E5. If one of us gets sick, I do not see how the others will avoid it... or so is my assumption. I may be wrong about the length of the string. Also, past experience with living like a hermit has convinced me a string that short cannot last for any meaningful length of time. Food runs have already been planned. And in this environment, that is (relative to staying home alone, anyway) a high risk activity.
With the added company about, my creative activities float closer to the surface, nearer reality, in such projects as this... or other shallow pursuits. Or in other words, it will be a good time to sort pictures, the coming fortnight, it will be.
I don't think the supply of milk or eggs will run out... nor canned beverages. Sure, there could be a dip. But for milk or eggs, the shortage will only last a week. While canned beverages will be low for a month on the outside. And by a dip or low, what I mean is that the supply will sell out, not that the supply will run dry.
This Just In! All Bars & Restaurants will be closed after Monday night. So, I was off by a few days. But I won that bet.
I like the idea of a Jubilee: A Universal Push of ALL Debt, Contract, & Obligation.
Don't be surprised when the tanks show up. Negative reaction depends upon what the folks in the tanks do. But then, upon contrary feedback, I will revise tanks to tents, call it a First Aid Station, with an armed foot patrol or two thrown in for PR. Eh, they know better than I. This happens if the Death Toll is significant, say 1 in 1000.
I was told the Fed Reserve has reduced the holding requirements for banks to zero. I am unconcerned.
Gold is not advancing like I would think it would, meaning no one feels the world economies are failing. This {Emergency Situation} is a stress to the system. But I do not fear breakage.
The Diary Project
Virus Watch
This Is Real
Due to the Corona Virus, my Diary Entries have become more elaborate than I would like. And as the library (my home away from home) is now closing for two weeks, the 'scare' is becoming real. Thus, I am saying that we are entering the second stage of the Covid Virus: Full Lock Down.
As such and as follow are my real-time thoughts, opinions, and assumptions concerning the crisis at hand. No attempt has been made to correct errors, as that would defeat the purpose of a subjective running record.
As such and as follow are my real-time thoughts, opinions, and assumptions concerning the crisis at hand. No attempt has been made to correct errors, as that would defeat the purpose of a subjective running record.
Library Closed
March 14-29
I've been getting my numbers from World o' Meters, which has been hacked. It turns out (if one believes the reports, which I do not) the entire population of Vatican City has succumbed to the virus. I find it hilarious. Good One, Hackers! Funny Stuff!
Within the hour, the data on the site was corrected. I don't know the why's or wherefore's. But I would guess the intent was to be humorous. And as such, the hackers either changed it back themselves... or simply left the admin password alone. My assumption being the hack was a simple password attack.
{While I know the official line runs counter to mine and I am well aware the individuals (if caught) will be slapped about (with merciless intent), I found it all very funny. Also, though one could take it as a personal affront against Catholics (call it a hate crime, if you will), I took it as a joke. It lightened my mood. So for me, it's a bit of hijinx and is not indicative of malicious intent.}
Library Materials are not due back until April Fools Day.
Others are telling me all gatherings (from Church Services to The Chicago Blues Fest, I was very much looking forward to the later) are going to be cancelled thru (as in, until the end of) April... maybe longer. Bummer.
There are two of us in here, essentially ten feet apart for much longer than usual. Good thing we like each other. But still, we are going to have to get better at enforcing periods of silence, so as to enable depth of thought.
Ha! Here you are. My new hobby is keeping this diary.
Work From Home Scams will be more successful in the coming weeks, as idle hourly workers become ever more desperate. By the same token, the weeks (and/or months) ahead should be pretty good for Email Spammers, as folks turn to the Internet for ever more entertainment. I wonder what the first really big Corana Virus Scam will look like? Herbal Supplements? Snake Oil of some sort, for sure.
If there was such a thing as a Rural REIT, I'd want to invest. Not just because the virus will increase demand for Remote Vacation Homes {heck, I've always wanted one for just this reason}; but also, because self driving cars will expand the range of the daily commute.
If there is not a Jubilee (a Universal Push on Debt, Contract, and Obligation), I foresee many Mortgage Foreclosures (barring other relief, of course). So, it could be a real good time to buy a house... unless the Death Count is high. In which case, prices will, also, drop. But there will be no urgency to buy.
I am taking NyQuil, again. I have no idea as to my health. I'm mildly unwell, mildly suffering from allergies, or something else equally unimportant. I have no fever or swollen glands. And I can think, which fever or the flu tends to knock out the window.
I wonder how many of us are sick.
2-8 Weeks?
I don't think much more than two is wildly supportable.
Sunday Night and the restaurants are closed. But the malls are open. Let's see what the 'morrow brings.
I do not believe in my imminent demise. I think I will survive. Though, I think for most, death is a rather abstract concept... never today... maybe not ever... certainly, not if one believes in the afterlife; as then, death reduces to a mere transformation.
"We don't know what the Death Rate is going to be yet." I find myself saying things like this surprisingly often.
2020-03-16
COVID-19
I have a new favorite number: #19.
Within the hour, the data on the site was corrected. I don't know the why's or wherefore's. But I would guess the intent was to be humorous. And as such, the hackers either changed it back themselves... or simply left the admin password alone. My assumption being the hack was a simple password attack.
{While I know the official line runs counter to mine and I am well aware the individuals (if caught) will be slapped about (with merciless intent), I found it all very funny. Also, though one could take it as a personal affront against Catholics (call it a hate crime, if you will), I took it as a joke. It lightened my mood. So for me, it's a bit of hijinx and is not indicative of malicious intent.}
Library Materials are not due back until April Fools Day.
Others are telling me all gatherings (from Church Services to The Chicago Blues Fest, I was very much looking forward to the later) are going to be cancelled thru (as in, until the end of) April... maybe longer. Bummer.
There are two of us in here, essentially ten feet apart for much longer than usual. Good thing we like each other. But still, we are going to have to get better at enforcing periods of silence, so as to enable depth of thought.
Ha! Here you are. My new hobby is keeping this diary.
Work From Home Scams will be more successful in the coming weeks, as idle hourly workers become ever more desperate. By the same token, the weeks (and/or months) ahead should be pretty good for Email Spammers, as folks turn to the Internet for ever more entertainment. I wonder what the first really big Corana Virus Scam will look like? Herbal Supplements? Snake Oil of some sort, for sure.
If there was such a thing as a Rural REIT, I'd want to invest. Not just because the virus will increase demand for Remote Vacation Homes {heck, I've always wanted one for just this reason}; but also, because self driving cars will expand the range of the daily commute.
If there is not a Jubilee (a Universal Push on Debt, Contract, and Obligation), I foresee many Mortgage Foreclosures (barring other relief, of course). So, it could be a real good time to buy a house... unless the Death Count is high. In which case, prices will, also, drop. But there will be no urgency to buy.
I am taking NyQuil, again. I have no idea as to my health. I'm mildly unwell, mildly suffering from allergies, or something else equally unimportant. I have no fever or swollen glands. And I can think, which fever or the flu tends to knock out the window.
I wonder how many of us are sick.
2-8 Weeks?
I don't think much more than two is wildly supportable.
Sunday Night and the restaurants are closed. But the malls are open. Let's see what the 'morrow brings.
I do not believe in my imminent demise. I think I will survive. Though, I think for most, death is a rather abstract concept... never today... maybe not ever... certainly, not if one believes in the afterlife; as then, death reduces to a mere transformation.
"We don't know what the Death Rate is going to be yet." I find myself saying things like this surprisingly often.
2020-03-16
COVID-19
I have a new favorite number: #19.
I like the idea of a Sport Jersey for Player Number 19. Their name, COVID. I think this would be great... and a fantastic money maker.
So rather than a tent in the local grocery store parking lot (as I'd imagined), if the National Guard comes to town, they will set up Headquarters in City Hall, a Community Center, the Library, a Hospital Field, or in a nearby Park. I'm, also, no longer expecting tanks, but a Police Car parked downtown could easily achieve the same result.
I've downloaded two Social Media apps... should I feel the need to play.
Eh, the shirt idea likely isn't so good. I can see those in mourning (who may turn out to be quite numerous) reacting badly to such flippancy. Oh, well.
I have no new ideas. I've been alone, working... and trying out Social Media. I can last.
I wonder how many others are hoping to capitalize on this. Me, I think I'm just going to keep on doing the same old. It {writing, posting crap pages like this} is not making me any money. But the time sure flies by.
In The Land of Imagination, I like the story where the family has a cabin in the woods. A brother in law or distant cousin is fear mongering the collapse of the financial markets. "Gold, dude. You need gold." So in the final days before The Real Lock-Down (we haven't gotten there yet), a party is sent to town to buy a small horde. And that very night, the instigator clears everyone out never to be seen again... or stages a fake robbery, possibly with the help of his wife or one of her friends.
The Financial Markets are not going to collapse. Fall in Value? Yes. Collapse? No.
The Malls did not close as I predicted. So, I am even on the money, having predicted restaurant closures. Still, I expect The Malls to close any day... really, any moment. I wonder why they have not.
I think I will do best if I assume I am sick and flush the system with vitamins and nutrition. After all, I probably am sick.
2020-03-17
Assume Sickness
I am going to assume I am sick and treat myself accordingly. I had a bit of a runny nose last night, trickling down my throat. But nothing this morning. Still, more vitamins. More water. More what I would do if sick. More pampering.
Day #4: I finally get out of my chair and stretch. Social Media is dangerous.
I don't think a Hard Core Lock-Down will last for more than a few weeks. It matters what the Death Toll is, of course. People will withstand much hardship to avoid Eminent Death. But once the hurdle has been surmounted (personal immunity) or the danger dissipates (herd immunity sets in or between waves) austerity measures will become increasingly difficult to enforce.
We saw numerous other groups walking when we went out for our own walk. I believe this pastime is going to make a resurgence.
I wonder how many near-death survivors will have brain damage... from overheating and chronic loss of oxygen.
I just had an hour long phone conversation, talking about almost nothing else but The Virus. Capitalize it, boy {in reference to The Virus}. Have some respect.
The malls are still open. But the Forest Preserves are all closed. That hurts, as we were expecting to take many a walk down a secluded Forest Trail, during The Shut-Down.
One of two things is true; and possibly, both. First, the powers that be fear death more than I. I am being too cavalier. Secondly, their model predicts worse outcomes than mine. I have been assuming 10% death upon onset of severe hacking. But that severe hacking only exhibits in a small number of cases. I must assume this is not true. Thus, I can predict 100,000 dead in the USA minimum.
Eh, let's refine that.
If The Virus spreads to 100% (the entire population), severe hacking presents a significant amount of the time (between 10% to 0.1%), and death at that point clocks in at 10% (falling to 1% with early detection and better treatment modalities), then given a US Population of 331,000,000 the Death Toll ranges from 331 to 331,000. And since the USA already has over 100 deaths, the low number cannot possibly be correct.
Up to 30,000,000 Casualties! This is what the authorities are looking at. This is driving everything. {The correct number was likely 2.2 Million, so a bit less.}
I'm willing to assume 25% saturation (at the moment)... eh, I'll change that to 10% and using that number (10%) for all variables, we get 0.1^4 x POP = 30,000 Casualties.
So, 25,000 Deaths by April 1st (one week from now for onset of symptoms, one week for death, so two weeks into the future) would bear out these numbers.
Of course, there are other models which would yield these numbers... and other numbers that this model would yield.
As stated, it's 1 in 10,000 or 10 per 100,000. And that's only the first round.
Gads. I pretty much assume I have it. I hope the conversion rate is microscopic. For me, that's the big unknown.
It did not help my peace of mind to learn all the Forest Preserves are shutting down.
I'll say 250,000 Declared Cases by April 1st confirms (at least, part of) my model.
I don't think we can trust China's numbers... Russia's, either.
False Alarm! The Forest Preserves are open... mostly. But the damage has (mostly) been done {to my emotional state of mind}.
Fragile. There's a word. And clearly, I am.
I survived Nuclear War. I can survive this. {Nuclear War being the Big Fear of my youth.}
A week ago (or whenever this all started), I think the models showed 1-50 Million Dead (if nothing done) with the one being there, so the numbers were taken seriously. This is just too big to fathom.
As time goes on, the Healing Protocol will improve, so the longer one holds out or avoids infection, the better the prognosis.
I am done for the day. This is morbid. I shall peruse Social Media while I wait for the NyQuil to kick all the way in. I dosed 2.5 Hours ago.
We are, also, treating with a humidifier... until the windows run with water.
2020-03-18
This Is Real
Death Awaits For Many
I believe my math was off in the above.
331,000,000 Population x 10% Infected x 1% Severe x 10% Mortality = 33,100 First Wave Death Rate
So, rounding down, 25,000 Dead by April 1st on 250,000 Reported Cases and 2,500,000 Infected. {{See how bad my math is? At 10% of the Population, Total Infected should be 25,000,000. Further, I have less and less confidence in any of my numbers. Sure, I'll say (today, on March 22nd, so on a different {{double curly brace}} day) that I believe there will be 25,000 dead in a week. But nothing seems to be bearing that out. I simply do not know and will believe anything, my mind vacillating wildly.}}
It's that conversion to Severe that is the big unknown. I don't believe 100%. But I am willing to entertain 10% with lower numbers seeming more likely. I used 1% in my model. But originally, I would have thought 0.01%.
But 0.01% Conversion from Infected to Severe does not justify the implemented response and predicts a Maximum Death Toll of 3,310, which considering we're (The USA is) currently at 116 seems a bit low.
That's enough number crunching. Suffice to say, I don't think the country is being shut down to save a few thousand lives. Therefore, the government's working numbers must be much higher.
At 25,000 Deaths (or even 10,000), The Lock-Down will be extended another Two Weeks.
I've been advised Call Wait Times for help lines at my Financial Institutions are longer than usual.
In expectation of Social Distancing Memes, let me propose the use of bullhorns to communicate across a field.
Hey, golf could take an upswing.
As aspects of The Defense Production Act have just been instituted, I've downloaded the same for a little light reading. One of the papers indicates parts of the program have been utilized for years (it being an accounting for some prior years), so I am not as concerned as I might otherwise be. Also, expecting the National Guard is essentially equivalent to expecting The Army... in my book, anyhow.
The Death Rate {after Infection} is falling. Soon enough, a one percent conversion from Severe to Death will be an actuality.
Listening to Weapons Labs Conspiracy Theories, I am not convinced.
They Can Quarantine Me!
But They Can't Quarantine My Mind!
Simon Property Group announced the closing of all its properties, including 200 Malls. {I believe, as I am no fact checker}. My prediction was two days off. {They closed two days later than I would have thought. I am led to believe part of the delay was due to lease terms. Perhaps, tenants do not have to pay rent when a mall is closed?}
I have a dry cough and I've been hot all day. But that last means little, as I often wear shorts throughout the winter. This apartment gets hot. I can think. I don't feel bad. And I worked out a little today. Also, I keep suckers around, as humans do cough on occasion. {Meaning, part of my gearing up to go outside (on a regular day, not just now) includes grabbing a tissue and making sure I have a few suckers, lest a coughing fit set in. Coughing, sneezing, and blowing one's nose all being part of life.}
I take it as a given the Lock-Down will be extended an extra two weeks. No doubt, everyone will be given extra time to complete their taxes.
Instead of Blanket Jubilee, the powers that be have opted for a line item solution. There is talk of cutting everyone a check. I expect major corporations to get much more. Moral Risk has no meaning anymore... not in this 'Capitalistic' Society, anyhow.
Interest will be charged, but my Financial Companies are telling me I can Postpone Payments for 120 Days.
"We'll all get through this." Well, not all of us.
I think my glands hurt more from feeling them and checking to see if they are swollen than anything else.
Other sources put the untreated Death Rate at one percent or so.
Rumor is Type O Blood does better. I'm Type O.
I've got a cough... a dry cough. Eh, not that bad. A few good coughs to little effect. My throat is scratchy. No fever.
I predict the Commuter Trains will go on a Hybrid Schedule come next week. A Sunday Schedule plus a few more Commuter Time Trains. They are running longer trains (more train cars). I can see running 12-15 car trains vrs the 8-10 more typically seen.
I should not laugh when the hearse goes by, for I may be the next to die. Please forgive me for not knowing where or when the base rhyme arises.
I look at that Death Tracker, a lot.
Have I mentioned the possibility of lower Housing Costs on the other side of this? It may be time to buy.
NyQuil: The Survivors Choice!
It's the middle of the night. I've just been made aware of the Imperial College of London's Reports.
2020-03-19
Humans Will Win
This is not virulent or deadly enough to do us in. I predict a Full Lock-Down until April 1st, extended until April 15th. But then, it ends, Social Distancing, Gas Masks, Gloves, and Protective Gear taking its place. Meaning, The First Wave will be The Last Wave, bringing the Body Count to under 100,000. Eh, that seems too low. So, I will say no more than 250,000 by year's end.
It's the morning. I'm optimistic.
Will a Scarf protect me and work as a Gas Mask?
Corona Vacation!
Let us assume Meditation Practice will increase. Gads, but isn't it a joy to Breathe Deep. F-A! I'm Alive!
Birth Defects from Corona Virus?
I see nothing negative about humidifiers. I just refilled. The windows are far from dripping with water.
I doubt I'll be able to improvise a meaningful Face Mask. Social Distancing is the key.
Hey. It's a bit chilly in here. Am I running a fever? Better check... again.
The train schedule was cut in half, during the commute... or so, I have been told.
NY asked all retired doctors to sign up. I assume that means Go On Indefinite Call.
Yeah. This is going to be grim.
I'm in an amazingly good mood.
Update, the new train schedule starts next week.
CA has asked everyone to stay home. Do Not Leave Your Home. I don't know the exact rules. Meanwhile. Sacramento's Shelter In Place order is effective until April 7th.
This is going to be a roller coaster of depression.
I predict there will be a Homeschooling Boom.
The latest fashion {coming next season to a runway near you} will include Virus Proof Cloth, Gloves, Glasses, and Respirators.
Let us assume we will hit a peak (new cases and deaths) ten days from the start of the Lock-Down, which I'll place at March 14th. So, the 24th for Peak New Cases and a few days later for the Peak Death Toll. And then, another two weeks of State Sanctioned Quarantine, before some sort of normality is restored. I am not taking into account Grocery Outing Deaths.
The Army is mobilizing. Military Medical Relief Vehicles (in the video posted online, they looked sort of white to me) have been spotted travelling by rail. All is well. All is going according to plan.
I am not keen on getting more groceries until it is absolutely necessary. I can live without Hot Chocolate... live being the operative word, there.
No NyQuil, tonight. It did not help me sleep all that much, last night.
Hey! I almost forgot. I had a Dance Party, this afternoon. It's my nickname for light aerobic exercise (lots of swaying, punching, and hand movements) set to music. So, I'm feeling pretty good. But my breaths don't go as deep as I'd like. I'm starting to think that's just me being me.
No fever. Scratchy throat and eyes. Not short of breath, but short breaths.
I should split this into weekly postings (rather than all at once at the end) for ease of editing. That makes today the last day for this page.
Social Media was not fun... too focused on Death. And then, Death is My Reading List. So, a bit of a downer.
Lots of money is being printed the days. But then, huge amounts of our economy relies upon imports. It would be ironic if the Shut-Down strengthened the dollar intrinsically... prior to taking International Relations into account.
So rather than a tent in the local grocery store parking lot (as I'd imagined), if the National Guard comes to town, they will set up Headquarters in City Hall, a Community Center, the Library, a Hospital Field, or in a nearby Park. I'm, also, no longer expecting tanks, but a Police Car parked downtown could easily achieve the same result.
I've downloaded two Social Media apps... should I feel the need to play.
Eh, the shirt idea likely isn't so good. I can see those in mourning (who may turn out to be quite numerous) reacting badly to such flippancy. Oh, well.
I have no new ideas. I've been alone, working... and trying out Social Media. I can last.
I wonder how many others are hoping to capitalize on this. Me, I think I'm just going to keep on doing the same old. It {writing, posting crap pages like this} is not making me any money. But the time sure flies by.
In The Land of Imagination, I like the story where the family has a cabin in the woods. A brother in law or distant cousin is fear mongering the collapse of the financial markets. "Gold, dude. You need gold." So in the final days before The Real Lock-Down (we haven't gotten there yet), a party is sent to town to buy a small horde. And that very night, the instigator clears everyone out never to be seen again... or stages a fake robbery, possibly with the help of his wife or one of her friends.
The Financial Markets are not going to collapse. Fall in Value? Yes. Collapse? No.
The Malls did not close as I predicted. So, I am even on the money, having predicted restaurant closures. Still, I expect The Malls to close any day... really, any moment. I wonder why they have not.
I think I will do best if I assume I am sick and flush the system with vitamins and nutrition. After all, I probably am sick.
2020-03-17
Assume Sickness
I am going to assume I am sick and treat myself accordingly. I had a bit of a runny nose last night, trickling down my throat. But nothing this morning. Still, more vitamins. More water. More what I would do if sick. More pampering.
Day #4: I finally get out of my chair and stretch. Social Media is dangerous.
I don't think a Hard Core Lock-Down will last for more than a few weeks. It matters what the Death Toll is, of course. People will withstand much hardship to avoid Eminent Death. But once the hurdle has been surmounted (personal immunity) or the danger dissipates (herd immunity sets in or between waves) austerity measures will become increasingly difficult to enforce.
We saw numerous other groups walking when we went out for our own walk. I believe this pastime is going to make a resurgence.
I wonder how many near-death survivors will have brain damage... from overheating and chronic loss of oxygen.
I just had an hour long phone conversation, talking about almost nothing else but The Virus. Capitalize it, boy {in reference to The Virus}. Have some respect.
The malls are still open. But the Forest Preserves are all closed. That hurts, as we were expecting to take many a walk down a secluded Forest Trail, during The Shut-Down.
One of two things is true; and possibly, both. First, the powers that be fear death more than I. I am being too cavalier. Secondly, their model predicts worse outcomes than mine. I have been assuming 10% death upon onset of severe hacking. But that severe hacking only exhibits in a small number of cases. I must assume this is not true. Thus, I can predict 100,000 dead in the USA minimum.
Eh, let's refine that.
If The Virus spreads to 100% (the entire population), severe hacking presents a significant amount of the time (between 10% to 0.1%), and death at that point clocks in at 10% (falling to 1% with early detection and better treatment modalities), then given a US Population of 331,000,000 the Death Toll ranges from 331 to 331,000. And since the USA already has over 100 deaths, the low number cannot possibly be correct.
Up to 30,000,000 Casualties! This is what the authorities are looking at. This is driving everything. {The correct number was likely 2.2 Million, so a bit less.}
I'm willing to assume 25% saturation (at the moment)... eh, I'll change that to 10% and using that number (10%) for all variables, we get 0.1^4 x POP = 30,000 Casualties.
So, 25,000 Deaths by April 1st (one week from now for onset of symptoms, one week for death, so two weeks into the future) would bear out these numbers.
Of course, there are other models which would yield these numbers... and other numbers that this model would yield.
As stated, it's 1 in 10,000 or 10 per 100,000. And that's only the first round.
Gads. I pretty much assume I have it. I hope the conversion rate is microscopic. For me, that's the big unknown.
It did not help my peace of mind to learn all the Forest Preserves are shutting down.
I'll say 250,000 Declared Cases by April 1st confirms (at least, part of) my model.
I don't think we can trust China's numbers... Russia's, either.
False Alarm! The Forest Preserves are open... mostly. But the damage has (mostly) been done {to my emotional state of mind}.
Fragile. There's a word. And clearly, I am.
I survived Nuclear War. I can survive this. {Nuclear War being the Big Fear of my youth.}
A week ago (or whenever this all started), I think the models showed 1-50 Million Dead (if nothing done) with the one being there, so the numbers were taken seriously. This is just too big to fathom.
As time goes on, the Healing Protocol will improve, so the longer one holds out or avoids infection, the better the prognosis.
I am done for the day. This is morbid. I shall peruse Social Media while I wait for the NyQuil to kick all the way in. I dosed 2.5 Hours ago.
We are, also, treating with a humidifier... until the windows run with water.
2020-03-18
This Is Real
Death Awaits For Many
I believe my math was off in the above.
331,000,000 Population x 10% Infected x 1% Severe x 10% Mortality = 33,100 First Wave Death Rate
So, rounding down, 25,000 Dead by April 1st on 250,000 Reported Cases and 2,500,000 Infected. {{See how bad my math is? At 10% of the Population, Total Infected should be 25,000,000. Further, I have less and less confidence in any of my numbers. Sure, I'll say (today, on March 22nd, so on a different {{double curly brace}} day) that I believe there will be 25,000 dead in a week. But nothing seems to be bearing that out. I simply do not know and will believe anything, my mind vacillating wildly.}}
It's that conversion to Severe that is the big unknown. I don't believe 100%. But I am willing to entertain 10% with lower numbers seeming more likely. I used 1% in my model. But originally, I would have thought 0.01%.
But 0.01% Conversion from Infected to Severe does not justify the implemented response and predicts a Maximum Death Toll of 3,310, which considering we're (The USA is) currently at 116 seems a bit low.
That's enough number crunching. Suffice to say, I don't think the country is being shut down to save a few thousand lives. Therefore, the government's working numbers must be much higher.
At 25,000 Deaths (or even 10,000), The Lock-Down will be extended another Two Weeks.
I've been advised Call Wait Times for help lines at my Financial Institutions are longer than usual.
In expectation of Social Distancing Memes, let me propose the use of bullhorns to communicate across a field.
Hey, golf could take an upswing.
As aspects of The Defense Production Act have just been instituted, I've downloaded the same for a little light reading. One of the papers indicates parts of the program have been utilized for years (it being an accounting for some prior years), so I am not as concerned as I might otherwise be. Also, expecting the National Guard is essentially equivalent to expecting The Army... in my book, anyhow.
The Death Rate {after Infection} is falling. Soon enough, a one percent conversion from Severe to Death will be an actuality.
Listening to Weapons Labs Conspiracy Theories, I am not convinced.
They Can Quarantine Me!
But They Can't Quarantine My Mind!
Simon Property Group announced the closing of all its properties, including 200 Malls. {I believe, as I am no fact checker}. My prediction was two days off. {They closed two days later than I would have thought. I am led to believe part of the delay was due to lease terms. Perhaps, tenants do not have to pay rent when a mall is closed?}
I have a dry cough and I've been hot all day. But that last means little, as I often wear shorts throughout the winter. This apartment gets hot. I can think. I don't feel bad. And I worked out a little today. Also, I keep suckers around, as humans do cough on occasion. {Meaning, part of my gearing up to go outside (on a regular day, not just now) includes grabbing a tissue and making sure I have a few suckers, lest a coughing fit set in. Coughing, sneezing, and blowing one's nose all being part of life.}
I take it as a given the Lock-Down will be extended an extra two weeks. No doubt, everyone will be given extra time to complete their taxes.
Instead of Blanket Jubilee, the powers that be have opted for a line item solution. There is talk of cutting everyone a check. I expect major corporations to get much more. Moral Risk has no meaning anymore... not in this 'Capitalistic' Society, anyhow.
Interest will be charged, but my Financial Companies are telling me I can Postpone Payments for 120 Days.
"We'll all get through this." Well, not all of us.
I think my glands hurt more from feeling them and checking to see if they are swollen than anything else.
Other sources put the untreated Death Rate at one percent or so.
Rumor is Type O Blood does better. I'm Type O.
I've got a cough... a dry cough. Eh, not that bad. A few good coughs to little effect. My throat is scratchy. No fever.
I predict the Commuter Trains will go on a Hybrid Schedule come next week. A Sunday Schedule plus a few more Commuter Time Trains. They are running longer trains (more train cars). I can see running 12-15 car trains vrs the 8-10 more typically seen.
I should not laugh when the hearse goes by, for I may be the next to die. Please forgive me for not knowing where or when the base rhyme arises.
I look at that Death Tracker, a lot.
Have I mentioned the possibility of lower Housing Costs on the other side of this? It may be time to buy.
NyQuil: The Survivors Choice!
It's the middle of the night. I've just been made aware of the Imperial College of London's Reports.
2020-03-19
Humans Will Win
This is not virulent or deadly enough to do us in. I predict a Full Lock-Down until April 1st, extended until April 15th. But then, it ends, Social Distancing, Gas Masks, Gloves, and Protective Gear taking its place. Meaning, The First Wave will be The Last Wave, bringing the Body Count to under 100,000. Eh, that seems too low. So, I will say no more than 250,000 by year's end.
It's the morning. I'm optimistic.
Will a Scarf protect me and work as a Gas Mask?
Corona Vacation!
Let us assume Meditation Practice will increase. Gads, but isn't it a joy to Breathe Deep. F-A! I'm Alive!
Birth Defects from Corona Virus?
I see nothing negative about humidifiers. I just refilled. The windows are far from dripping with water.
I doubt I'll be able to improvise a meaningful Face Mask. Social Distancing is the key.
Hey. It's a bit chilly in here. Am I running a fever? Better check... again.
The train schedule was cut in half, during the commute... or so, I have been told.
NY asked all retired doctors to sign up. I assume that means Go On Indefinite Call.
Yeah. This is going to be grim.
I'm in an amazingly good mood.
Update, the new train schedule starts next week.
CA has asked everyone to stay home. Do Not Leave Your Home. I don't know the exact rules. Meanwhile. Sacramento's Shelter In Place order is effective until April 7th.
This is going to be a roller coaster of depression.
I predict there will be a Homeschooling Boom.
The latest fashion {coming next season to a runway near you} will include Virus Proof Cloth, Gloves, Glasses, and Respirators.
Let us assume we will hit a peak (new cases and deaths) ten days from the start of the Lock-Down, which I'll place at March 14th. So, the 24th for Peak New Cases and a few days later for the Peak Death Toll. And then, another two weeks of State Sanctioned Quarantine, before some sort of normality is restored. I am not taking into account Grocery Outing Deaths.
The Army is mobilizing. Military Medical Relief Vehicles (in the video posted online, they looked sort of white to me) have been spotted travelling by rail. All is well. All is going according to plan.
I am not keen on getting more groceries until it is absolutely necessary. I can live without Hot Chocolate... live being the operative word, there.
No NyQuil, tonight. It did not help me sleep all that much, last night.
Hey! I almost forgot. I had a Dance Party, this afternoon. It's my nickname for light aerobic exercise (lots of swaying, punching, and hand movements) set to music. So, I'm feeling pretty good. But my breaths don't go as deep as I'd like. I'm starting to think that's just me being me.
No fever. Scratchy throat and eyes. Not short of breath, but short breaths.
I should split this into weekly postings (rather than all at once at the end) for ease of editing. That makes today the last day for this page.
Social Media was not fun... too focused on Death. And then, Death is My Reading List. So, a bit of a downer.
Lots of money is being printed the days. But then, huge amounts of our economy relies upon imports. It would be ironic if the Shut-Down strengthened the dollar intrinsically... prior to taking International Relations into account.
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